Demand Forecasting Lead (all genders)

Job Summary

The Demand Forecasting Lead role at tonies UK Ltd. in Düsseldorf is a full-time position responsible for transforming historical sales, market dynamics, and complex lifecycle indicators into a robust Baseline Forecast that serves as the "single version of the truth" for global decision-making.

Responsibilities

The successful candidate will have end-to-end ownership of the forecasting process, defining and improving the forecasting calendar, roles, and collaboration standards between central and market teams. Key responsibilities include:

• Process Leadership & Enablement: Leading the global forecasting process, enabling regional teams to enrich statistical baselines with market intelligence, and partnering across the supply chain to align primary drivers with dependent SKUs.
• Methods, Analytics & Advanced Modeling: Selecting, tuning, and advancing forecasting methods, establishing historical "attach ratios" for secondary products, and merging disparate datasets into a cohesive signal.
• Governance & Performance Management: Establishing segmentation rules, tracking performance metrics, and maintaining the "single version of the truth" through disciplined documentation.
• Systems & Signal Integrity: Identifying and correcting demand distortions, partnering with IT and Planning Systems Specialists to automate manual workflows, and defining requirements for Advanced Planning System (APS) dashboards.

Requirements

The ideal candidate will have:

• Minimum 5+ years of experience in industries characterized by high dependency ratios, such as Consumer Electronics, Gaming, or Licensed Entertainment.
• Proven track record of managing "System-to-Service" or "Platform-to-Consumable" product lifecycles.
• Experience presenting "Attachment Logic" to senior leadership to justify inventory investments in secondary or dependent SKUs.
• Deep knowledge of time series, seasonality, intermittency, and model governance.
• Demonstrated ability to operate in a Center of Excellence role,setting standards and driving adoption across diverse stakeholders.
• Hands-on experience with APS/planning tools such as o9, Kinaxis, Blue Yonder, or SAP IBP.
• Strong Excel skills, SQL capability, and experience with Python/R or ML/AI in a demand forecasting context.
• Fluency in English; German is considered a plus.

Benefits

The company offers a range of benefits, including:

• Global teamwork and collaboration
• Mobility options, such as a Deutschlandticket or leasing bicycle
• Enhanced security, including subsidies for company pension plans and occupational disability insurance
• 30 days of paid annual leave and additional days off
• Continuous learning opportunities and an individual learning budget
• Access to language learning and meditation apps
• Discounts on tonies products