# Demand Forecasting Lead (all genders)

**Company**: tonies UK Ltd.
**Location**: Düsseldorf
**Experience**: senior
**Job type**: Full-time
**Category**: Operations
**Industry**: Technology

**Apply**: https://tonies.jobs.personio.com/job/2692398?utm_source=yubhub.co&utm_medium=jobs_feed&utm_campaign=apply
**Canonical**: https://yubhub.co/jobs/job_ed15e9d8-edc

## Description

## Job Summary

The Demand Forecasting Lead role at tonies UK Ltd. in Düsseldorf is a full-time position responsible for transforming historical sales, market dynamics, and complex lifecycle indicators into a robust Baseline Forecast that serves as the "single version of the truth" for global decision-making.

## Responsibilities

The successful candidate will have end-to-end ownership of the forecasting process, defining and improving the forecasting calendar, roles, and collaboration standards between central and market teams. Key responsibilities include:

- Process Leadership & Enablement: Leading the global forecasting process, enabling regional teams to enrich statistical baselines with market intelligence, and partnering across the supply chain to align primary drivers with dependent SKUs.

- Methods, Analytics & Advanced Modeling: Selecting, tuning, and advancing forecasting methods, establishing historical "attach ratios" for secondary products, and merging disparate datasets into a cohesive signal.

- Governance & Performance Management: Establishing segmentation rules, tracking performance metrics, and maintaining the "single version of the truth" through disciplined documentation.

- Systems & Signal Integrity: Identifying and correcting demand distortions, partnering with IT and Planning Systems Specialists to automate manual workflows, and defining requirements for Advanced Planning System (APS) dashboards.

## Requirements

The ideal candidate will have:

- Minimum 5+ years of experience in industries characterized by high dependency ratios, such as Consumer Electronics, Gaming, or Licensed Entertainment.

- Proven track record of managing "System-to-Service" or "Platform-to-Consumable" product lifecycles.

- Experience presenting "Attachment Logic" to senior leadership to justify inventory investments in secondary or dependent SKUs.

- Deep knowledge of time series, seasonality, intermittency, and model governance.

- Demonstrated ability to operate in a Center of Excellence role,setting standards and driving adoption across diverse stakeholders.

- Hands-on experience with APS/planning tools such as o9, Kinaxis, Blue Yonder, or SAP IBP.

- Strong Excel skills, SQL capability, and experience with Python/R or ML/AI in a demand forecasting context.

- Fluency in English; German is considered a plus.

## Benefits

The company offers a range of benefits, including:

- Global teamwork and collaboration

- Mobility options, such as a Deutschlandticket or leasing bicycle

- Enhanced security, including subsidies for company pension plans and occupational disability insurance

- 30 days of paid annual leave and additional days off

- Continuous learning opportunities and an individual learning budget

- Access to language learning and meditation apps

- Discounts on tonies products

## Skills

### Required
- forecasting
- analytical modeling
- business partnering
- supply chain management
- data analysis
- Excel
- SQL
- Python
- R
- ML/AI

### Nice to have
- German language
- Center of Excellence experience
- o9
- Kinaxis
- Blue Yonder
- SAP IBP

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Source: [Apply at tonies.jobs.personio.com](https://tonies.jobs.personio.com/job/2692398?utm_source=yubhub.co&utm_medium=jobs_feed&utm_campaign=apply)